Hunting The Muse

NaderCannotWinDemocratically proves that Nader cannot win without undermining DemocraticIntent; i.e. cannot win democratically.

ProtectingDemocraticIntent proves that a ThirdPartySpoiler that cannot win democratically undermines DemocraticIntent.

Nader is a ThirdPartySpoiler, by definition.

DemocraticIntentMustBeProtected proves that DemocraticIntent must not be undermined.

Therefore, since Nader's run undermines DemocraticIntent, Nader should not run for President.

Parent: ProofList

NaderCannotWinThePresidency is socially proven, contested by NuclearNader.

NuclearNaderIsNotDemocratic proves that winning through the NuclearNader scenario is not a democratic win.

Therefore, Nader cannot win democratically.

Parent: NaderShouldNotRun

There is one scenario that says Nader could win one state, limiting the others from winning 270 Electoral Votes, and then demand that Kerry assign all his delegates to him by proclaiming that he doesn't care if Bush wins over Kerry (since Bush would probably beat Kerry in the House Of Reps). This is arguably absurd, but we haven't yet proven it impossible. Are delegates from any states prohibited from casting Electoral Votes for someone other than the winner, even if the winner wishes it? A proof would probably have to look closely at precedent and social pressures on delegates to guarantee this wouldn't happen.

Parent: NaderNeedsToWinLotsOfStates

NuclearNader describes a scenario where Kerry's delegates plus Nader's delegates would be enough to beat Bush.

Since Nader would only win one state, this would mean that the population as a whole would prefer Kerry to Nader. The population as a whole would also prefer Bush to Nader.

Therefore, the DemocraticIntent of the voting population is clearly not Nader.

Nader winning in this fashion would therefore be undemocratic.

Parent: NaderShouldNotRun

The "Third Party Spoiler" is a type of candidate (referred to herein as a "spoiler") that can make one winnable candidate lose to another, when it might otherwise beat the other. Not all candidates are spoilers. Not all third party candidates are spoilers. A spoiler will not definitely affect an election in this way; it's only a possible outcome.

We define a spoiler as a candidate that fits all the below required criteria.

• The spoiler is running
• The spoiler is running against other candidates who do have a clear shot at winning ("winnable candidates")
• The spoiler is clearly ideologically closer to one of the winnable candidates than the other(s), in terms of voter support
• The spoiler is participating in an election that does not allow the spoiler's supporters to register preference between the other winnable candidates.

Reasoning:

A spoiler gets support from a variety of supporters. We define a "preferenced supporter" as a supporter of the spoiler, that also has a preference among the winnable candidiates. This means that if the spoiler wasn't running, the spoiler's supporters would vote for that other winnable candidate.

Since the spoiler is ideologically closer to one party, some of the spoiler's support would come from preferenced supporters of that party's candidate. The spoiler would also have more preferenced supporters from that candidate than from another.

If so, then if the spoiler loses, a winnable candidate could then lose to another winnable candidate, even if the population as a whole preferred the losing winnable candidate to the winner.

Parent: NaderShouldNotRun

The Democratic Intent of the voters can be defined as the candidate that the population prefers overall, among a group of candidates. In a group of two candidates, the majority preference is the Democratic Intent.

There is an absolute definition of DemocraticIntent.

In matters where a population has a direct input, it is a truism that DemocraticIntent must be protected in order for it to be a Democracy. Since states decide presidential elections, DemocraticIntent must be protected on a state level.

A ThirdPartySpoiler is capable of spoiling an election, but may not. In cases where a ThirdPartySpoiler has a shot at winning, then by definition that means they may be the DemocraticIntent of the population.

If a candidate may be the DemocraticIntent, then excluding them from the race would also undermine DemocraticIntent.

Therefore, any ThirdPartySpoiler that has a chance at winning democratically should run. While they may turn out to spoil the election, this would only be clear after the fact.

However, a candidate that does not have a chance of winning democratically only has two possible outcomes. They have a chance of having no effect, and they have a chance of undermining DemocraticIntent. But, their presence does nothing to protect DemocraticIntent. No matter what, their presence reduces the likelihood of DemocraticIntent being expressed. The presence of such a candidate may have value in terms of "providing a voice" to voters in the minority, but at the cost of making it less likely that DemocraticIntent will be expressed.

Therefore, a ThirdPartySpoiler that has no chance at winning democratically undermines DemocraticIntent.

Parent: NaderShouldNotRun

DemocraticIntent must be protected. This is pretty much a truism. Anyone opposing this argument for politic purposes would be exposing Democracy to the same sort of abuse from their political enemies.

American Democracy is about majority rule, without minorities being trampled. This is not the same as minority rule. Minorities are given protection, but not the right to win elections outright.

DemocraticIntent must be protected. If it is currently undermined, we must work toward restoring it.

Parent: NaderShouldNotRun

NaderCannotWinThePresidency is socially proven, contested by NuclearNader.

Nader is a ThirdPartySpoiler, by definition.

SpoilersUndermineDemocraticIntent proves that a ThirdPartySpoiler that cannot win should not run, if DemocraticIntent is to be protected.

Therefore, Nader should not run if DemocraticIntent is to be protected, contested by NuclearNader.

Parent: ProofList

The Democratic Intent of the voters can be defined as the candidate that the population prefers overall, among a group of candidates. In a group of two candidates, the majority preference is the Democratic Intent.

There is one scenario that says Nader could win one state, limiting the others from winning 270 Electoral Votes, and then demand that Kerry assign all his delegates to him by proclaiming that he doesn't care if Bush wins over Kerry (since Bush would probably beat Kerry in the House Of Reps). This is arguably absurd, but we haven't yet proven it impossible. Are delegates from any states prohibited from casting Electoral Votes for someone other than the winner, even if the winner wishes it? A proof would probably have to look closely at precedent and social pressures on delegates to guarantee this wouldn't happen.

Parent: NaderNeedsToWinLotsOfStates

This is the sandbox. If you're not sure about wikis, play around here. Edit the text, do what you want, press submit, delete, restore, do whatever, don't have fun. I mean, do.

SandyCove is another junk page.

See, I deleted a Hmm comment, and I'm adding this.

Just curious: what was so Hmm about it?

Dunno. No idea who added the Hmmm. Hmmmm.

This is Pete and Kira checking in... Hmmmm. Hmmmm. Hmmmm.

Hiya. Here's the contents of the other junky page. I'm expanding on the junkiness here.

The "Third Party Spoiler" is a type of candidate (referred to herein as a "spoiler") that can make one winnable candidate lose to another, when it might otherwise beat the other. Not all candidates are spoilers. Not all third party candidates are spoilers. A spoiler will not definitely affect an election in this way; it's only a possible outcome.

We define a spoiler as a candidate that fits all the below required criteria.

• The spoiler is running
• The spoiler is running against other candidates who do have a clear shot at winning ("winnable candidates")
• The spoiler is clearly ideologically closer to one of the winnable candidates than the other(s), in terms of voter support
• The spoiler is participating in an election that does not allow the spoiler's supporters to register preference between the other winnable candidates.

Reasoning:

A spoiler gets support from a variety of supporters. We define a "preferenced supporter" as a supporter of the spoiler, that also has a preference among the winnable candidiates. This means that if the spoiler wasn't running, the spoiler's supporters would vote for that other winnable candidate.

Since the spoiler is ideologically closer to one party, some of the spoiler's support would come from preferenced supporters of that party's candidate. The spoiler would also have more preferenced supporters from that candidate than from another.

If so, then if the spoiler loses, a winnable candidate could then lose to another winnable candidate, even if the population as a whole preferred the losing winnable candidate to the winner.

Parent: NaderShouldNotRun

If a ThirdPartySpoiler exists, then it is possible that an otherwise winnable candidate can lose even when the population prefers that winnable candidate overall.

ProtectingDemocraticIntent proves that a ThirdPartySpoiler that cannot win democratically undermines DemocraticIntent.

DemocraticIntent must be protected to keep a race Democratic.

Therefore, if DemocraticIntent is to be protected, a ThirdPartySpoiler that cannot win should not run.

Parent: NaderShouldNotRun

The Democratic Intent of the voters can be defined as the candidate that the population prefers overall, among a group of candidates. In a group of two candidates, the majority preference is the Democratic Intent.

The "Third Party Presidential Spoiler" is a type of candidate (referred to as a "spoiler") that can make one winnable candidate lose to another, when they might otherwise beat the other. Not all presidential candidates are spoilers. Not all third party presidential candidates are spoilers. There nonetheless exists a type of candidate that is a spoiler, and this is the definition and proof.

We can define a spoiler as a candidate that fits all the below criteria.

• The spoiler is running for president
• The spoiler does not have a shot at winning the election
• The spoiler is running against other candidates who do have a clear shot at winning ("winnable candidates")
• The spoiler is clearly ideologically closer to one of the winnable candidates than the other(s), in terms of voter support
• The spoiler is participating in an election that does not allow the spoiler's supporters to register preference between the winnable candidates.

Reasoning:

A spoiler gets support from a variety of supporters. We define a "preferenced supporter" as a supporter of the spoiler, that also has a preference among the winnable candidiates.

Since the spoiler is ideologically closer to one party, some of the spoiler's support would come from preferenced supporters of that party's candidate. The spoiler would also have more preferenced supporters from that candidate than from another.

If so, then an otherwise winnable candidate could then lose to another winnable candidate, even though the population as a whole preferred that losing winnable candidate.

NaderNeedsToWinLotsOfStates proves that Nader needs to win several states outright in order to win the Presidency, contested by NuclearNader.

By definition, Nader needs to outscore all other candidates in the same state to win a state.

NaderWillNotWinEnoughStates socially proves that Nader cannot win 270 electoral votes worth of states in 2004.

Therefore, Nader cannot win the Presidency, contested by NuclearNader.

Parent: NaderCannotWinDemocratically

This is ultimately a subjective proof, or a strongly-argued allegation.

Nader has no party organization behind him. Nader is not focusing on attracting Democratic voters. Nader's policies are more liberal than conservative, and will not attract a large portion of Republican voters. Nader intends to gain support from the millions of nonvoters, but he intended that in 2000 as well and did not get them. Nader's message is not extremely different than in 2000, when he got less than 3% of the vote. Nader cannot match the ground organizations of the other two parties, and has not exhibited strong support online or through the media. Nader has not demonstrated the abililty to win, and does not have an entirely different approach than when he lost before. Nader cannot win one state, much less the eleven largest states (or the 40 smallest states and DC).

Most of the reasoning behind this proof, however, rests on polling. In various state polls, Nader is not polling above 10% anywhere. His unfavorable ratings are also significantly higher than his favorable ratings. He's not even close to gaining more support than even one of the other two candidates, much less both of them.

Therefore, Nader will not win enough states to capture 270 Electoral Votes in 2004.

Parent: NaderCannotWinThePresidency

NaderNeedsToWinTheElectoralCollege proves that the only way Nader can win the presidency in 2004 is to win the Electoral College outright.

By definition, Nader needs to win 270 Electoral Votes.

A candidate can get Electoral Votes in two ways:

1. Winning a state outright (states award their Electoral Votes on an all-or-nothing basis)
2. Convincing pledged delegates to vote against their party and their state's elected candidate.

A candidate's pledged delegates are party loyalists, from the party of the state's winning candidate, and will not vote against their party in most cases.

Therefore, a candidate needs to win enough states outright to get 270 Electoral Votes.

The largest eleven states are the smallest number of states that total 270 Electoral Votes.

Therefore, Nader needs to win several states outright - at least eleven - in order to win the Presidency.

There is one NuclearNader scenario, invented by Carl Nyberg, that contests this proof...

Parent: NaderCannotWinThePresidency

1. WinningThePresidency shows that is only possible through system-breaking revolution, winning at least 270 Electoral Votes, or winning through the House of Representatives.
2. NaderWillNotWinByRevolution shows that Nader cannot currently win through nonconstitutional means.
3. NaderWillNotWinInHouseOfReps shows that Nader cannot win if a contested election goes to the House Of Representatives.

Therefore, Nader can only win the Presidency in 2004 by winning the Electoral College outright.

Parent: NaderNeedsToWinLotsOfStates

A presidential candidate can win the presidency in any of three ways:

1) A system-breaking revolution - Whether by force or by a huge proactive effort by American society to be led in a new way, this would be a massive change in context that would have similarly massive resistance.

2) Winning the Electoral College - the Constitution requires that a presidential candidate win a majority of the Electoral Votes in order to win the presidency outright. There are 538 Electoral Votes, so this means 270 must be won by a candidate.

A plurality is not enough. In other words:

Candidate A: 200
Candidate B: 170
Candidate C: 168

does not mean that Candidate A wins the presidency. If no one gets 270, it goes to the House of Representatives.

Illustrative point: this means that to win the E.C., a candidate must win more Electoral Votes (more electoral support) than all other candidates combined.

3) Winning the House of Representatives - in manners where there is not a clear electoral winner, the election is determined in the House, with the Representatives voting for the candidates.

Parent: NaderNeedsToWinTheElectoralCollege

Proving that a revolution that would result in Nader being installed president through means other than the Constitution will not be successful by 2004.

Such a revolution can be accomplished publicly or secretly. A secret revolution would require a small number of players that have the power to have an effect in overthrowing government. There does not exist a small number of players with the power to overthrow and redefine the U.S. Government. Therefore, a secret revolution is impossible.

A public revolution would require public momentum before it would become successful. As of the moment of this writing, there is no public momentum for such a revolution. Furthermore, Nader is not calling for one, and there is also not a well-known independent effort calling for one.

If a credible public effort begins to overthrow the U.S. Government, then this proof would be contestable. As it stands now, it is not.

Therefore, it is currently impossible for Nader to win in 2004 through a non-Constitutional revolution.

Parent: NaderNeedsToWinTheElectoralCollege

(formerly named NaderWinningHouseOfReps)

In order to win the House of Representatives, you have to have Representatives willing to vote for you. When the election goes to the House, it is determined by the Representatives that were just voted into the House. Each state's delegation caucuses separately. Each state gets one vote. The state's vote is determined by the representatives in that state. So if CA has more Democratic reps than Republican reps, the state's vote would most likely go to the Democratic candidate. (Interestingly, the Senate chooses the Vice President, but not by state - each Senator just gets one vote.) Here is a scenario based off of 2004 numbers.

Currently, alll the Representatives but one (Vermont) are either Democrat or Republican.

Representatives represent Congressional Districts. One representative might be loyal to their party even if their candidate doesn't win their district or state.

In the cases of a split delegation (two Republican Reps and two Democratic Reps), the delegation might choose to go to who won the state, but otherwise they vote by party.

In order to win the House, a candidate needs to win the majority (not just the plurality) of the states. If they can't, the Senate picks a Vice President that can serve in the President's stead. So, Nader would need to win 26 state delegations.

In other words, the Republican and Democratic representatives of 26 different states would need to agree to vote for Nader, even when Nader would not have won the popular vote of their state.

The only way a state delegation would vote for Nader is if Nader won the state, AND if that state had a split delegation of representatives.

There are not 26 states with split delegations, or even an even number of representatives, making this impossible.

Therefore, Nader will not win through the House of Representatives.

Parent: NadersShotAtWinning

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The plugin intercepts Movable Type's "save" entry.

It requires a few perl libraries. You can find these at cpan.org and put them in your extlib directory, but it's better to install them via CPAN yourself, or ask your administrator to do so.

• Rcs::Agent
• HTML::Diff
• HTML::TokeParser
• String::ShellQuote
• Algorithm::Diff
• File::Temp

It supplies two Template tags. I use them on my index page template and my individual archive template:

<MTIfRevised>
 Revision: <$MTRevisionLink$>
</MTIfRevised>

Finally, it uses two style elements for added and deleted text:

<span class="ins"></span> 

and

<span class="del"></span>.  

Add style definitions for these classes to your stylesheet. I use the following:

.ins {
    text-decoration: none;
    padding: 0 2px 0 2px;
    background-color: #66ff99;
}
.del {
    text-decoration: none;
    padding: 0 2px 0 2px;
    background-color: #ff6699;
}

But they are pretty ugly so you might like to suggest something better.

In the future, this plugin might use the ins and del tags instead. Go ahead and make your style elements apply to those tags as well in case you upgrade and the syntax changes.

Please Note: Versioning happens upon save. This means that if you edit an existing entry and make changes, the version you are changing from is not versioned. For these entries, you may wish to edit and save without making changes first, one time for each pre-existing entry you wish to edit. New entries will be automatically versioned upon creation, though.

RevisionPluginChangeLog

RevisionPluginBugs (check here for a note about customized individual-entry tpls)