November 03, 2004
Election Night Summary
Tonight was a disaster.
I'm going to assume Kerry gets Wisconsin, which means that Ohio decides it. Bush gets Nevada, so there's no scenarios with the House or electors throwing votes to the other candidate - the margin would be too great either way.
Bush wins the national vote when he lost it in 2000. That means that there were more Gore->Bush switchers than there were Bush->Kerry switchers.
We had a turnout of less than 110 million people, and we had lines of up to nine hours in places. That means that this stupid nation doesn't even have the capacity to handle a 60% turnout.
I think Republicans increased their margins in the House and Senate.
I don't even feel distraught yet, because I honestly hadn't even imagined this yet and haven't grasped what it means yet.
Ohio is being contested, but Bush's margin has been growing.
I guess the only wildcards are if it turns out that all the "early voting" weren't included in tonight's results, or if there are far more number of provisional ballots than we thought, or if we find out that the Diebold counties were completely out of whack with exit polling when exit polling was spot-on accurate in other counties.
The Democrats were so confident. I don't get it. I don't think the answer is going the Dean direction because he couldn't even beat Kerry.
I think this changes me. I thought we were a lot closer, so I was feeling pretty motivated towards becoming more engaged in the party. But now it just seems like it will take something much different to actually make the nation be more representative of those who believe in truth, empathy, and reason. Secession? New governments? Emigration?
No matter what goes our way the next few days, we were so far off.
I did get a whiff of it. I remember feeling uncomfortable the other night that all of our optimism was so predicated on the certainty that pollsters were undersampling Democrats, or were underestimating turnout, or young voters, or voters without landlines.
But in hindsight, the media actually pretty much had it right.
I guess I was in a bubble. I can be forgiven. But the people in the Democratic Party? What's their excuse?
Posted by Curt at November 3, 2004 12:27 AMI'm moving to Canada. Or Australia. Or hell, Korea. North.
I'm struck by your comment that following mounting interest for a while, you're now feeling less inclined to participate in the current structure of politics, given the outcome. I relate. What in God's name will have to shift to wake up this country? My temptation to simply slide into despair or utter avoidance is profound.
I remember a conversation in college with a particularly bright, liberal senior already hired by a prestigious think-tank in Washington. We were talking about the Clinton-Perot-Bush election. When asked how he planned to vote, he didn't blink. "Bush." Not another word. Pause. "Seriously?" "Yeah, no one on the ticket gets it, and few in our electorate get it. Our only hope is to bottom out and make ourselves desperate. Bush is clearly the man to court disaster."
Perhaps we aren't strong enough as an electorate to vote for a Gandhi without a palpably - and personally - oppressive government standing on our necks. Bush's son is clearly the man to take us there, too.
I suspect you've been getting your information from the MSM and Democrat talking points. The one person who had it right from day one was Rush Limbaugh. He even gave the Democrats honest advice about their candidate and their message. He has been telling us not to worry and analysed why. I believe your side underestimated the power of the Swift Boat Vets.
Mover Mike