Hunting The Muse

Election Thread

Polls have closed in some states. Check this grid throughout the night for a cool chart on what networks have projected what state. There's also an awesome map at cspan that has the vote totals as they come in.

Bush: GA, IN, KY
Kerry: VT

Good news for Kerry that SC and VA are too close right now.

Mongiardo(D) takes lead in KY Senate race.

Damn, CBS's interactive monitor is really cool.

It's a half hour after close and SC is still not projected for Bush. That's good news, even if Bush ends up winning it.

Too close to call: VA, OH, NC
Too early to call: SC (so it's just a lack of numbers, not necessarily a close race)

More great news for Kerry, although he hasn't won any surprises yet.

CNN has WV for Bush. So do several others. 39-3 Bush. So, not as much opportunity for a Kerry blowout.

NBC mentions that Kerry is still working the media when they hoped he would have been done by now. First twinge of uncertain news on Kerry's side I've heard. Hopefully it's nothing.

Many absentee ballots will not be counted tonight in PA and FL. Hopefully the margin will be enough that it won't matter.

MSNBC says that NC is so close because of the number of voters below age 30, which is preferring Kerry at 60% nationwide.

More polls closing:

Bush: TN AL OK
Kerry: IL NJ MA MD CT ME(3) DC DE
Too close: MO FL OH PA NH

77-66 Kerry. A lot of Bush-favored states are still too close to call, some even an hour after polls have closed. Will one of them break to Kerry?

Bush gets sign of relief for WV, Kerry gets sigh of relief for NJ.

NBC projects Obama to win his senate race. ;-) Networks are downplaying Dem's chances of taking the Senate.

NC is called for Bush. Took long than expected. 81-77 Bush. They also projected SC for Bush. 89-77 Bush? Still no surprises. CBS has projected VA for Bush. 102-77 Bush? Still no surprises.

Too early to call: AR

Oof. Coburn (R) is projected to beat Carson for Senate in OK. That sucks.

Still 102-77 Bush. No surprises so far. And now we're waiting for another half hour until 9PM EST.

Bush: TX KS NE ND SD WY
Kerry: NY RI
Too close: WI, MI, NM, CO, AR, MS, MN, and earlier others.

Still no surprises or switches from 2000. 156-112 Bush

I am starting to feel very suspicious about Republicans in FL and OH.

Bush: LA MS

171-112 Bush, still no surprises.

10 PM EST Closings:

Bush: UT

176-112, no surprises.

Bush: AR

182-112, no surprises.

Bush: MO

193-112, no surprises. I'd like to see more surprises for Kerry, though. Ugh.

Bush: MT

196-112, no surprises still.

Kerry: PA

HUGE sigh of relief for Kerry. 196-133 Bush. Still no surprises, but Kerry really needed PA.

Bush: AZ

206-133 Bush. Still no surprises.

11pm EST calls

Kerry: CA WA
Bush: ID

OR and HI are too early too call.

210-199 Bush. Still no surprises. Come on, Oregon!

Rumors of a large youth turnout were greatly exaggerated. :-(

Knox County in Ohio - nine hour lines.

Some of the more visible leaders over at daily kos are sounding discouraged.

Bush: CO

219-199 Bush. Still no surprises.

Joe Scarborough on MSNBC says that Kerry insiders don't believe they will win the state of Florida. Now, can we believe Joe?

The upper midwest looks good so far for Kerry. If Kerry gets Ohio, I still think he wins.

CNN also reports that Kerry insiders believe they don't have Florida.

Bush: FL

Oof. ABC and CBS call FL for Kerry. I guess it's down to Ohio. 246-199 Bush. This is the first big flip of the night, if you considered Florida rightfully the Democrats'.

Kerry: OR

PHEW!!! But, still no surprises. 246-206 Bush.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Kerry will not get Alaska. Given that, it means that Ohio is now a must-win. If he doesn't get Ohio, Bush gets re-elected.

Kerry: Last EV in Maine.

246-207 Bush. Still not a surprise. If Bush gets Ohio and Alaska and we get everything else, it's 269-269 and Bush is re-elected through the House.

People are getting REALLY pessimistic about Ohio over on daily kos, when they look at the percentage precincts reporting in various democratic counties. They're saying there just aren't enough remaining voters left to make up the margin.

All sorts of Daily Kos members projecting four more years of Bush.

Ugh, Fox projects Ohio for Kerry. They're the only network to project Ohio so far. Deja vu anyone?

Kerry: MN, NH

246-221 Bush. Our first real surprise of the election, Kerry takes New Hampshire from Bush.

MSNBC projects Ohio for Bush.

AL: Bush

If they're right, then we've got 269-207, and Bush is re-elected president - possibly in the House. But rumors are that Bush is ahead in NM.

Fuck.

CNN announces they will not call Ohio because there are over 200,000 provisional ballots out there.

Colorado was called for Bush even though none of Boulder County's (hippieville) ballots will be counted until tomorrow. The margin must be pretty wide.

Right now Nader is deciding Iowa in favor of Bush.

Weird - PBS had projected Bush winning New Hampshire, even though other networks have projected Kerry winning New Hampshire. That's the first clear disagreement in projections.... and, PBS has just corrected its projection, calling NH for Kerry.

Right now it looks like we are in a worse position than we were in 2000. Iowa will not be called tonight because the counters are going home. They are hinting that Bush will win Iowa. Kerry has to win Wisconsin for challenging Ohio to even make sense. And right now it looks like the Democrats are behind by a large amount of voters in the nationwide popular vote.

Turnout overall doesn't look much higher than 2000. None of those 120-million numbers that were bandied about.

Kerry: MI

That makes it 249-238 Bush.

Kerry: HI

That makes it 249-242 Bush.

Evidently Wisconsin is being called for Kerry by local press in Wisconsin. That would make it 252-249 Kerry. That would mean that the only way for Bush to win outright is to win Ohio.

Bush's margin in Ohio is growing.

Reports are that already-reported exit polling results all over the place are being changed to better fit the election results.

I'm done with this thread. TV is being turned off. Summary coming up.

Posted by Curt at November 2, 2004 04:03 PM