October 25, 2004
State Of The Polls
Most election followers are familiar with the importance of Florida and Ohio. If Bush gets both, he probably wins. Not definitely, but probably.But there are some wildcards. On Kerry's side, there are Colorado and Arkansas. In Arkansas, Bush has had a lead, but there's evidence of Kerry peaking at the right time. I believe that all the Gore states plus NH and Arkansas are enough to push Kerry over the top. The other is Colorado. Zogby shows Kerry ahead, although he might be an outlier there. But Michael Whouley (who managed Kerry's Iowa comeback) has been very high on Kerry's Colorado chances. On the other hand, Kerry's pulled back from Colorado in the last couple of days. CO is definitely enough to put Kerry over the top with the Gore states and NH. Finally, NV is still in Bush's column, but very close.
On the Bush side, there are a few more options. First, he's currently polling ahead in NM. It's only 5 votes, but it would cancel out a Kerry win in AR or CO. If Kerry gets NV, a Bush NM win would be moot since they are both 5 EVs. The other states are in the upper midwest. Bush has pushed ahead in Iowa in three straight polls, and Wisconsin in four straight polls. Winning both would give Bush 17 EVs, all but canceling out a Kerry win in Ohio. Finally, even MN is close with 10 EVs. If Bush gets all three of those, Ohio won't even matter for Kerry if he doesn't also get Florida. If Bush gets two of the three (which is how it looks right now), Kerry needs one of Ohio or Florida, and either AR or CO.
So as it stands right now, going by the polls, Bush has the advantage. Kerry is said to have the "undecided" advantage and the turnout advantage, but we can't be sure either way. I personally believe the thing about undecideds breaking 2:1 towards the challenger on election day, but... it is an uncomfortable position to be in.
Wildcards? Rehnquist's health has made the Supreme Court more visible as an issue. And, the hundreds of tons of explosives that were stolen in Iraq - it reflects badly on Bush.