February 23, 2004

Nader Proof

I have been working on my proof that Nader's run is destructive.

A subproof is that Nader will not win the Presidency. The proof currently has the following weak points:

  1. I am attempting to prove that Nader will not take office in 2004 through a system-breaking revolution that installs him in office while ignoring our normal presidential-election process. The occurrence basically requires that such a massive social movement will not take place by November 2004. I'd like to prove that it won't happen.
  2. I am attempting to allege that Nader will not be able to gain enough support in the House of Representatives to win there should no candidate get a majority of Electoral Votes. I believe that he would get some votes from Representatives whose congressional districts went to Nader, but that it would not be enough for him to win. But I would like more evidence of this to feel sure.
  3. I am attempting to allege that Nader will not outscore all other candidates in enough states to win the several states outright needed to win the Presidency. I'd need more input from political and polling wonks to make this point more convincingly, though.
Once I effectively "prove" that Nader won't win the Presidency, I can move on to whether that's really his goal, and whether or not that makes his run destructive.

So if anyone has comments on how to help buttress the above three points, leave a comment or email me.

I hope to eventually make this proof (and others) available through a wiki.

Posted by Curt at February 23, 2004 06:04 PM