February 03, 2004

Live Coverage

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In review: Kerry wins five states, Edwards wins one, Clark wins one. I'm frustrated that Dean missed getting delegates in North Dakota and Delaware. He might even miss getting delegates in Arizona. (And update: he's sinking fast enough in NM that he may even miss delegates there.) Edwards got many more delegates than Clark today. Dean still leads Edwards for second in the delegate count, but many will scoff at that number and I don't know how likely it is that Dean will lose any of his pledged superdelegates.

Read on for my live-blogging notes of the results tonight.

I may have spoken too soon about NM. Dean's at 20% right now, with 43% reporting. He's sinking fast. I think that if he gets below 15% in NM, then it's basically over for him - WA would be his last stand.

NM has been called for Kerry. I think Dean did not beat expectations for 2/3. He might have met them. But if he only lands delegates in one state, that could hurt.

Clark is pulling away from Edwards a bit in OK with 97% reporting - up by almost 2,000 votes.

Dean is dipping below the viability point in AZ with 66% reporting...

It appears the 95% reporting figure at the NM Caucus site is wrong. We're still only at 22% reporting, but it appears Kerry might be pulling a way a bit more - up by six right now. :-(

Daily Kos user bball has some allegations about more dirty tricks Kerry is pulling, about NM not awarding absentee ballots to Dean requesters. I saw a more detailed description somewhere else but can't find it right now.

The NM Caucus site has results, with around 95% reporting. Looks like it is Kerry winning by four, with Dean and Clark about tied for second.

Looks like provisional ballots and absentee ballots are not the same thing.

The word is that the initial results showing a strong Dean in NM were the absentee ballot count.

The provisional ballots, which are sealed, are for when people show up at the caucuses but don't have the right registration information. They fill out a provisional ballot and leave. They are then sealed to be counted later.

Arizona is called for Kerry, but Dean is above the viability line at 18%, in third place, with 52% reporting.

Kerry pulls ahead of Dean a bit in NM, 29-25, 15% reporting.

Those are the only two states where it looks like Dean can get delegates tonight.

A frustrated Dean volunteer in Seattle vents about Kerry "cheating" by using robocalling and push-polling - by going through Dean's list of voters and calling the phone numbers.

CNN has Sharpton receiving a delegate in DE somehow, not sure if that is a typo.

Dean has fallen from 14% to 12% in ND, 96% of precincts reporting. So less chance of viability there.

Clark is now ahead of Edwards in OK, but only by 800 votes, 88% reporting. What's funny is that ultimately doesn't matter because they will both get an equal number of delegates out of it. But "who wins" makes a huge difference to the press, even though it shouldn't. Stupid press.

Someone just mentioned that the three-way-tie in NM is from counting only the mail-in ballots. If that's true, that's probably bad news for Dean's chances. I'm still trying to figure that out. A bunch of stuff about mail-in, absentee, provisional, and sealed ballots, and I don't know if all four are the same thing or not.

Also, Trippi said that the NM results would give WA voters a good indication of if he could win in WA, which I took as a code for WA voters to be reassured by NM's finish that it was ok to vote for Dean. If he was reacting to the NM vote totals when the totals were actually in an inaccurate proportion, it might have been stupid for him to say that.

Evidently Clark is ahead of Edwards by twelve votes at this moment in OK. They've swapped leads three times in the last fifteen minutes.

Dean is at 14% in ND (50% reporting). Close to viability.

Evidently NM is close, and that's without the absentee ballots, which evidently will take a couple of days to count since they are still being shipped around (which seems weirdly disorganized to me). But if Dean or Clark have an absentee advantage, then it could make a difference in a close race.

Kerry and Dean tied at 27% in NM, with Clark at 25%, with 0% precincts reporting. ;-)

It looks like OK is going to be between Edwards and Clark, with Kerry definitely third. That makes the race tighter.

Rumors are that while Kerry appears to be winning ND, Dean might be reaching delegate viability there, which is a surprise.

Lieberman is making his withdrawal speech.

Sharpton didn't reach the viability point in South Carolina, it appears. Hopefully he will leave soon.

Big news: evidently exit polling shows that NM is a three-way tie between Kerry, Clark, and Dean. Even a strong showing by Dean in NM would be beating expectations.

Kerry is projected to win Arizona.

To review, Edwards won S.C., and OK is a close three-way tie between Edwards, Clark, and Kerry. Kerry won MO and DE.

I just heard a random Kerry supporter say they supported Dean for a long time but eventually went to Kerry because of electability... but still liked Dean... and was torn. Frustrating! There's like 30% of active voters out there for which "electability" is a NEW CONCEPT, new enough to make them switch their vote on a dime. They don't stop to think that maybe it's wrong.

"Sources" just announced Lieberman will withdraw from the race tonight. Posted by Curt at February 3, 2004 07:10 PM