Hunting The Muse

2/3 Predictions

Well, tomorrow's going to be another day of Dean not winning, so I'm not really looking forward to it. The campaign has been quite vocal about how they aren't looking to win tomorrow, although I can't help but wonder if they are disappointed at how the numbers are looking tomorrow.

Given how the numbers look, what would be beating expectations is if Dean got anywhere near close to 1st in New Mexico, and above the viability line in Missouri, Arizona, and Delaware. So maybe the goal is to get delegates in more than half the states.

There's been buzzing that due to absentee ballots, Dean may have gotten a boost in the southwestern states, but there's also been buzzing that the absentee ballot situations have been an enormous screw-up in those states also - people not receiving their ballots, people having enormous trouble changing party registration, etc.

The only other hope is for Kerry to come out of tomorrow looking weakened. He's behind in Oklahoma (to Clark and Edwards) and South Carolina (to Edwards), and Clark is close to him in both Arizona and North Dakota.

Lieberman should be dropping out tomorrow. Who knows when Sharpton and Kucinich will.

I'm predicting that both Clark and Edwards will come out of it seeming kinda strong, but neither weak enough to consider dropping out, which would mean that neither of them would be able to consolidate into a true anti-Kerry.

There's a bizarre press meme lately where the press is reporting on how the press isn't being very hard on Kerry. It's like they feel so bad about pounding on Dean that they are going easy on Kerry to make up for it.

Kerry should get delegates in all seven states. Dean could get delegates in four states. Edwards should get delegates in four states. Clark should get delegates in five states. It's possible that after tomorrow, Dean could still be in second place with delegates.

Posted by Curt at February 3, 2004 03:52 AM