August 08, 2003
California Recall
Well, there are probably going to be a couple of more surprise candidates, judging from how it's gone so far, but in my mind the story's just about been written.First, Darrell Issa gets idiot of the year award. This guy blew millions of dollars only to see Arnie enter the race. He withdrew, and I'm betting he was "encouraged" to withdraw by some Republican something-or-other. But honestly, he was an idiot before then. He blew millions of dollars without ever even considering the impact of the no votes, basically betting that the no voters wouldn't be able to vote for a candidate. This was a very bad bet.
And I'm thinking that Arnie's being an idiot too. I'm just about convinced that Bustamente is going to win this governor's election by a landslide. Here's why.
Davis has 20-30% approval. Those people are going to vote no on the recall. There are also people that disapprove of him, but are still going to vote no on the recall just on principle. This is at least 30% of the vote - and yet, they all get a free vote, to vote for a backup candidate.
If these voters are educated properly, they'll know not to use that vote frivolously. If people are against the recall, they are basically saying that the believe the recall is a sham, and if Davis is ever going to be replaced, he must be replaced using non-recall methods. Bustamente is the only valid choice for them; if Davis were to die or step down, Bustamente would be governor because he's first in line for succession.
And yet, there are also people - many, many people - who are going to vote YES on the recall and then vote for Bustamente.
I just don't see any candidate overcoming Bustamente's support and the majority of the no votes.
So, two stories are going to come out of this.
- Will the California voters opposed to the recall recognize that their best strategy is to band together to support one candidate on the second part of the ballot?
- Will some republican-strategist in disguise take the opportunity to sponsor a "populist" protest vote, for instance petitioning people to write in "None Of The Above" in an effort to make their votes not count and boost Arnie's chances?