July 31, 2003
2004 Projection #2
All right, I've analyzed the electoral map some more after reading up on a bunch more conventional wisdom, and I really think now that the #1 most important state is Missouri. The Democratic candidate needs to get Missouri if they don't get Florida. If they don't get Missouri, it gets tougher, because they have to start aiming for Arizona, or all of: New Hampshire, West Virginia, and Nevada.Of those three, I do think it's pretty likely the Dems will land New Hampshire due to their libertarian leanings. But it's not enough - If they get one of the other two, then we've got a 269-269 tie.
So, in my mind the 2004 trifecta for Bush is: Florida, Missouri, and Arizona. If he gets all of those, he's re-elected. If he loses one, then he's out on his ear.