That's my first cut at an entirely reasonable projection of the 2004 election. The democratic frontrunners right now are from the Northeast, which brings New Hampshire in play. Given the competitiveness of Florida, Arizona, and New Mexico, and given the closeness of Georgia, Missouri, Louisiana, and Arkansas, there are definite possibilities for the Democrats, and it could be a real challenge for the Republicans.
The above map has the Democrat winning 270-268.
Hrm... according to many, though, Indiana is pretty staunchly Republican.