The initiative process bogged down for unclear reasons. I wrote some leaders at the Center For Voting And Democracy and they said that after some bad experiences they think that lobbying is a much more constructive approach than the initiative process. That aligns with a gut impression I had. I also found information on Vancouver WA's recent success in passing their IRV measure - while it merely allowed IRV as an option, didn't require anything, and didn't cost any funds, it still only passed 52-48. There's just a lot of lazy distrust out there.
The rest of the clues so far are coming from details emerging on the Eugene effort. I was forwarded part of OR's constitution that specifically details majority voting but also allows preference voting given the passage of laws allowing them. That's how I read it anyway - it's not against the constitution, but would require further law. Complicating this is the murmuring that the Secretary Of State plays a hand in this in terms of deciding whether or not to allow different voting methods. I don't know what that's all about yet.
Finally, there's been some chatter about superior voting methods. Right now I'm leaning towards Approval. I think Condorcet is better, but Approval is simpler, easier to explain, easier to implement. I'm getting feedback from others about how Approval is harder to sell than IRV. Here's a quote from a member of CVD:
It has one major flaw that comes up in the real world of elections: your second choice candidate can defeat your first choice candidate if you decide to approve of both of them. The end result is a whole lot of bullet voting and voter perceptions of something fishy going on. Politcally, it can be hard to defend it when something who could have more than 50% in our current plurality system, but lose under approval voting.Good points. I personally believe they fall apart given that I believe a consensus candidate should beat out a 51% candidate, but that's a philosophical issue that people don't usually even think about.
More as it happens...